PittsburghV1, France, Analysis, bibRecord, 000558

Non-Bayesian Inference: Causal Structure Trumps Correlation

Identifieur interne : 000558 ( France/Analysis ); précédent : 000557; suivant : 000559

Non-Bayesian Inference: Causal Structure Trumps Correlation

Auteurs : Benedicte Bes [France] ; Steven Sloman [États-Unis] ; Christopher G. Lucas [États-Unis] ; Eric Raufaste [France]

Source :

Cognitive science [ 0364-0213 ] ; 2012.

RBID : Pascal:12-0414274

Descripteurs français

Pascal (Inist)
- Probabilité conditionnelle, Causalité, Probabilité subjective, Etude expérimentale, Apprentissage, Homme, Explication, Approche bayésienne.
Wicri :
- topic : Homme.

English descriptors

KwdEn :
- Bayesian approach, Causality, Conditional probability, Experimental study, Human, Learning, Subjective probability.

Abstract

The study tests the hypothesis that conditional probability judgments can be influenced by causal links between the target event and the evidence even when the statistical relations among variables are held constant. Three experiments varied the causal structure relating three variables and found that (a) the target event was perceived as more probable when it was linked to evidence by a causal chain than when both variables shared a common cause; (b) predictive chains in which evidence is a cause of the hypothesis gave rise to higher judgments than diagnostic chains in which evidence is an effect of the hypothesis; and (c) direct chains gave rise to higher judgments than indirect chains. A Bayesian learning model was applied to our data but failed to explain them. An explanation-based hypothesis stating that statistical information will affect judgments only to the extent that it changes beliefs about causal structure is consistent with the results.

Affiliations:

Links to Exploration step

Pascal:12-0414274

Le document en format XML

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Non-Bayesian Inference: Causal Structure Trumps Correlation

Non-Bayesian Inference: Causal Structure Trumps Correlation

Source :

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)

Links to Exploration step

Le document en format XML

Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)

Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri

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